Thursday, September 07, 2006


After the primary election in Florida I wanted to review the statistics and see if there was any trend or indicator that would let us know how interested voters would be in the national elections.

This figure might not have any significance because a triggering incident could change the thoughts of the public and change the outcome. Therefore, any information developed must be related to today and considered with tongue in cheek as a future indicator. Researchers in the break rooms kid about the BS estimate (Blue Sky thinking) or the ever popular WAG (wild a—guess) or the old reliable wyswyg (what you see is what you get) and so on but they can be rough on each other because it is a serious business.

I found very little. Search after search failed to develop projections or analysis. There was a report in the Miami area about the rains keeping voters away and the turn out being about 15%. A blogger reported a 20% turn out which was more dependable because projections were based on 85% of the precincts reporting. The State did give good figures so I could look at the turnout but had to go back to the previous year for registered voters.

I would say the turnout was between 20% and 25% and if I studied some past elections I would think the figure is about what you would expect. One comment was the turnout reflected the lack of confidence in the voting machines and system. The Times commented on the prospects of Democrats gaining on the Republicans.

Actually the Democrats have more registered voters than the Republicans. But the Republicans had a higher percentage of turn out.
Am I wrong to believe that the major metropolitan areas in Florida are controlled by the Democrats and the voting systems would be led by individuals elected by their Democratic constituency? Would that also include the Miami area where Bush was accused of having stolen the election? The cable channel Fox News admitted the major TV channels reported the outcome of the election going to the Democrats when the polls closed, forgetting that the polls in the panhandle were open another hour because of the time zone difference. They estimated a loss in votes of about 15,000 because so many thought the election was over and decided. Of this 15,000 about 12,000 would have gone to the Republican side. This fact is always ignored in the projection or wishful thinking of the press.

Marc Ambinder of the Hotline wrote an article for the Washington Post about how the Independents are gaining strength as the political parties lose steam. Interesting article that would make Neil Boortz and his Libertarians happy. The article has some good points that can be applied to the activity in the Northeast where independents are stronger. The article I saw was reprinted in a local Liberal paper alongside a Times article about the GOP forgetting its principles.
We can’t argue with that can we? We have the life long dream of many seasoned Republicans with control today of both houses of congress and the Presidency. It is hard to overlook the wasted effort with the pork barrel spending of those who have the power. It is so disappointing. But even with all that the Republicans still outperformed the Democrats in Florida.

My conclusion? Don’t give up on the dedicated yet, they are still plugging away. There was an old story that said the plodders will always win. The hot shots come and go but those plodders who stay at it and keep plodding along and will get there in the end after the hot shots have fallen by the wayside.

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